THESIS
2017
xiii, 94 pages : illustrations (some color) ; 30 cm
Abstract
Bayesian quasi-likelihoods constructed from estimating functions enable the use of semi-parametric
inference in Bayesian inference. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to
problems with looser parametric assumptions. Loosening parametric assumptions can
simplify model specifications and inference designs. This is especially beneficial for environmental
studies, which is an interdisciplinary subject covering a wide range of topics.
This study focuses on the adoption of quasi-likelihoods in two environmental applications
that are common in environmental studies.
The first application discussed in this study is the construction of quasi-likelihoods
from composite score functions for Bayesian inference on spatio-temporal models. Nonetheless,
composite score functions are a clas...[
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Bayesian quasi-likelihoods constructed from estimating functions enable the use of semi-parametric
inference in Bayesian inference. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to
problems with looser parametric assumptions. Loosening parametric assumptions can
simplify model specifications and inference designs. This is especially beneficial for environmental
studies, which is an interdisciplinary subject covering a wide range of topics.
This study focuses on the adoption of quasi-likelihoods in two environmental applications
that are common in environmental studies.
The first application discussed in this study is the construction of quasi-likelihoods
from composite score functions for Bayesian inference on spatio-temporal models. Nonetheless,
composite score functions are a class of estimating functions with a complex structure.
Quasi-likelihoods constructed from estimating functions with complex structures usually
deform. To solve the deformation problem, we demonstrate and explain theoretically why
the deformation happens. Then, we introduce a method of quasi-likelihood regularization
which effectively handles the deformation and restores the nice statistical properties of
the quasi-likelihoods. For an empirical demonstration, we apply the quasi-likelihood regularization
for Bayesian inference on a spatio-temporal model studying the concentration
of ground-level ozone in Hong Kong.
The second application discussed in this study is a Bayesian Randomized Response
Technique (RRT) method, which mitigates the response distortion resulting from dishonest
answers in survey studies. In studies of attributes related to deviant behavior, respondents may provide untruthful answers to hide their sensitive attributes. RRT is a
classic technique for mitigating response distortion, but few studies have used RRT to analyze
multiple quantitative attributes. Therefore, we formulate a Bayesian RRT method,
whose ( quasi-)likelihood is constructed from certain moment equations, so as to develop a
reliable and stable RRT method for the analysis of multiple quantitative attributes. Simulation
studies are conducted to justify the effectiveness of the Bayesian RRT method,
and an empirical study is conducted to demonstrate the method.
Recently, the Hong Kong government has proposed a quantity-based municipal solid
waste charging scheme aiming at reducing the generation of waste in Hong Kong. It is
expected that the implementation of the scheme will induce illegal waste dumping. In this
study, we construct a behavioral model based on psychological theories to identify the key
determinants of illegal waste dumping. As illegal waste dumping is a sensitive behavior,
we demonstrate how the Bayesian RRT method can be applied to mitigate the distortion
from dishonest answers when fitting the behavioral model. The coefficient analysis of
the fitted behavioral model reveals the effectiveness of various policy mixes for deterring
illegal waste dumping.
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