THESIS
2020
xvii, 153 pages : illustrations (chiefly color), color maps ; 30 cm
Abstract
With growing concerns over public health and environmental impact of maritime shipping, the International Maritime Organization and local governments have established multilevel regulations to reduce shipping-related air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions. This study aims to provide an integrated analysis of ship emissions and their attributable impacts under different policy scenarios, which could aid policymakers to prioritize control strategies. To achieve this goal, this study proposed an integrated assessment framework to quantify ship emission – air quality – public health impact under the domestic policy – international convention – industrial practice regulatory system. Three global models were used: a self-developed ship emission assessment model for generating bottom-up e...[
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With growing concerns over public health and environmental impact of maritime shipping, the International Maritime Organization and local governments have established multilevel regulations to reduce shipping-related air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions. This study aims to provide an integrated analysis of ship emissions and their attributable impacts under different policy scenarios, which could aid policymakers to prioritize control strategies. To achieve this goal, this study proposed an integrated assessment framework to quantify ship emission – air quality – public health impact under the domestic policy – international convention – industrial practice regulatory system. Three global models were used: a self-developed ship emission assessment model for generating bottom-up emission inventories based on ship activity records from the Automatic Identification System (AIS); the GEOS-Chem Atmospheric Chemistry Model, a 3-D global atmospheric chemistry model for computing pollutant concentration; and the Global Exposure Mortality Model for estimating mortalities attributable to outdoor PM
2.5 exposure. Four policy scenarios were examined, including the baseline policy scenario of the year 2015, the 2020 0.5% Sulphur Cap, the post-2020 0.1% Sulphur Cap, and the post-2020 Tier III NOx Standard.
My results show that the health burdens of global ship emissions are dominated by international shipping, while China and Japan see more than 30% of their burdens contributed by domestic shipping. The 0.5% Sulphur Cap starting from 2020 would bring significant health benefits, reaching to 82% reduction in mortalities attributed to air pollutants from shipping compared to the baseline scenario. Afterward, the NOx-based control policy would have a larger margin than the SOx-based control policy to mitigate the health burden, especially in countries associated with emission control areas (United States, Canada, European countries), and countries having high demands for domestic shipping (China and Japan). In terms of carbon mitigation, the Ship Owner is the best option for allocating emissions from international shipping to nations. Considering both the health burden and competitive advantage in the industry, China, Japan, the United States, EU27, and the United Kingdom have high potentials to lead the global green transition of the maritime industry. This study conducted estimates in a consistent framework and is the first to differentiate individual and combined impact of international and domestic shipping at a global level. My findings could facilitate policy formulation and collective decision making on controlling emissions from maritime shipping.
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