THESIS
2021
1 online resource (xiv, 262 pages) : illustrations (chiefly color)
Abstract
Environment and climate change is one of the most important issues facing the world today. In
the 21st century, global warming, and consequent sea level rise, as well as the imbalance of
ecosystem stability, have become one of the most urgent global issues. Scholars have called
for further studies on the energy transition and carbon neutrality target to avoid the huge threat
to the reproduction and survival of human beings in the future.
For the purpose of comparing the concrete effects of climate change actions in different periods
and different countries and evaluating the long-term pathway to carbon neutrality with the
minimum cost in China, the framework of the policy cycle is applied to analyze how the energy
transition policy will work, and a qualitative and quantitative mixed app...[
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Environment and climate change is one of the most important issues facing the world today. In
the 21st century, global warming, and consequent sea level rise, as well as the imbalance of
ecosystem stability, have become one of the most urgent global issues. Scholars have called
for further studies on the energy transition and carbon neutrality target to avoid the huge threat
to the reproduction and survival of human beings in the future.
For the purpose of comparing the concrete effects of climate change actions in different periods
and different countries and evaluating the long-term pathway to carbon neutrality with the
minimum cost in China, the framework of the policy cycle is applied to analyze how the energy
transition policy will work, and a qualitative and quantitative mixed approach was employed
to conduct this study combining extensive literature collection and review, with participant
observations and in-depth interviews in the field.
Firstly, this study seeks to find out the most appropriate definition of current energy transition
and then identify a new indicator DCI to measure the progress of energy transition. By testing
DCI with other indicators such as the energy-based carbon intensity and carbon emissions per
capita, the project will prove that the DCI contains information about the climate footprint of
carbon – the only source of CO2 emissions from energy use– in the energy carriers, which
could help policy-makers keep track of their country’s decarbonization progress, the DCI also
helps to review the evolution of the modern energy system. Secondly, this study aims to find
the most likely pathway of China’s energy transition towards carbon neutrality with minimum
cost and the energy consumption, carbon emissions (or sink) from different sources, and total investment to give a brief roadmap about how China could achieve the energy tansition target.
Fiannly, this study enriches the principle of IO-Table model, and combines it with employment
statistics to get the change of input-output on employment. We find that (1) To be carbon
neutrality, the average DCI level of 15 countries and regions whose total carbon emissions
exceed 0.5% of the world's total needs to be around 0.9. (2) China's energy transition is a long-term
and arduous undertaking. From the discussion of financial, technology and political
feasibility and the calculation of employment transition caused by emissions peak and carbon
neutrality in China, we could find that the investment required for China's energy transition is
only about 2% of China’s GDP per year, which will not cause much economic pressure, but
disruptive technological development is still needed to support the progress of energy transition.
(3) Most provinces and departments will face social risks such as employment losses and the
closure of fossil energy enterprises. How to solve these social risks so that the just transition
can be run in China will become the core issue for the Chinese government to solve in the next
40 years.
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