THESIS
2016
xiii, 100 pages : illustrations ; 30 cm
Abstract
This dissertation is composed of three essays, which revolve around developing DSGE
models to understand the
fluctuations in business cycles, mainly in terms of volatility and
comovement.
Chapter 1 titled "Land Price and Asset Pricing Puzzles" presents a production-based
general equilibrium asset pricing model with land. I show that this model can explain key
financial markets phenomena of a lower-than-unity intertemporal elasticity of substitution
(IES), which is proven to be a challenge in the long-run risks literature. The success of
the model comes from the competition for land between household and firm, which raises
the land price and further implies high and volatile land return. Consequently, the model
solves the equity premium puzzle and volatility puzzle. Moreover,...[
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This dissertation is composed of three essays, which revolve around developing DSGE
models to understand the
fluctuations in business cycles, mainly in terms of volatility and
comovement.
Chapter 1 titled "Land Price and Asset Pricing Puzzles" presents a production-based
general equilibrium asset pricing model with land. I show that this model can explain key
financial markets phenomena of a lower-than-unity intertemporal elasticity of substitution
(IES), which is proven to be a challenge in the long-run risks literature. The success of
the model comes from the competition for land between household and firm, which raises
the land price and further implies high and volatile land return. Consequently, the model
solves the equity premium puzzle and volatility puzzle. Moreover, the model can explain
that volatility risk in productivity growth carries a positive risk premium; and the model
can also be extended to generate cross-sectional differences in firms' returns. In addition to
the success in financial markets, I show that the model captures the salient business cycle
properties, such as the relative volatility and comovement among land price, consumption
and investment. All the results are robust with a greater-than-unity IES.
Chapter 2 titled "Household and Business Investment Dynamics in a Demand Rigidity RBC Model" builds a stochastic model with demand rigidity to explain the dynamics
of business investment and household investment in the U.S. macroeconomic data. In
contrast to the standard RBC model, my benchmark model generates the positive comovement with GDP and the correct lead-lag pattern between two kinds of investment,
which are long standing puzzles in the existing literature. Demand rigidity, characterized
by firm entry-and-exit, could play a role in reducing the demand for business investment goods. It dampens the crowding-out effect between two types of investment in the standard RBC setting and hence generates the data-consistent patterns. This paper further
investigates an alternative framework to check the robustness of the role of demand rigidity, and also applies the baseline model to replicate the cross-country differences in lead-lag
patterns.
Chapter 3 titled "Comovement and Multiple-Product Firms" introduces a general equilibrium model of multiple-product firms, which can help to solve the comovement puzzle usually associated with news shock. Although empirical evidences have shown that
multiple-product firms dominate worldwide output and trade, they have received relatively little theoretical attention, especially in the strands of business cycle literature. I show
that a highly stylized model with the structure of multiple-product firms can restore the
comovements among investment, consumption, employment, number of firms and output,
because in this framework consumption and investment become productive complementarity even they are substitutes for consumers. I also apply the multiple-product model to respond to other prevailing shocks such as uncertainty shock and investment shock which
encounter difficulty in generating business-cycle comovement, and find the robust result.
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