This study investigates whether there is a political legal cycle in China using a province-level dataset on crime rates from 1994 to 2012. The results show that a political legal cycle exists in China; that is, arrests and prosecutions increase in the year before the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and decrease in the year in which it is held. The results are robust across different econometric specifications. To provide a plausible interpretation of these empirical findings, a simple theory is proposed in which authoritarian governments are more concerned about regime stability during politically sensitive years. The theory argues that the increase in crime before the Congress is due to the “punishment effect”, while the decrease in crime during the Congress is due t...[ Read more ]

This study investigates whether there is a political legal cycle in China using a province-level dataset on crime rates from 1994 to 2012. The results show that a political legal cycle exists in China; that is, arrests and prosecutions increase in the year before the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and decrease in the year in which it is held. The results are robust across different econometric specifications. To provide a plausible interpretation of these empirical findings, a simple theory is proposed in which authoritarian governments are more concerned about regime stability during politically sensitive years. The theory argues that the increase in crime before the Congress is due to the “punishment effect”, while the decrease in crime during the Congress is due to the “deterrence effect”. Additional evidence corroborates the theory. The government indeed concerns about the Congress. There is an increase in punishment in the year before the Congress. Moreover, the government punishes more severely during the National Party Congress in non-ethnic minority regions, which is consistent with the argument that authoritarian governments are more willing to resort to repression to maintain stability in those regions.