The resilience of authoritarian regimes has long been discussed by the political scientists. Most existing literature focuses on the stable and peaceful state of the regimes, instead of how the regimes survive crises that may bring it down. Researchers of democratic transition explain the survival and collapse of authoritarian countries by elite cohesion. But they only focus on the cohesion among the top elites. I argue that the cohesion between rulers and their subordinates also play an important role in crises that may threaten the regime. The importance of the agents in charge of putting down protests is largely underestimated by current literature. It is likely that the agents in charge of putting down protests would act opportunistically if the central authority is vulnera...[ Read more ]

The resilience of authoritarian regimes has long been discussed by the political scientists. Most existing literature focuses on the stable and peaceful state of the regimes, instead of how the regimes survive crises that may bring it down. Researchers of democratic transition explain the survival and collapse of authoritarian countries by elite cohesion. But they only focus on the cohesion among the top elites. I argue that the cohesion between rulers and their subordinates also play an important role in crises that may threaten the regime. The importance of the agents in charge of putting down protests is largely underestimated by current literature. It is likely that the agents in charge of putting down protests would act opportunistically if the central authority is vulnerable. China, as a vast authoritarian country with a hierarchical political system, could serve as a typical case to explore the interaction between the center and the local agents. I found that, in a national crisis, the factional split within the center led to the opportunistic action of provincial elites. They may neither encourage nor repress the protests. The inaction let the national crisis spread freely. Once the center gave out a strong and clear signal about central cohesion, the provinces would show their loyalty and put the local protests into control.