This paper examines whether Malthusian positive checks on population size took place in historical China. By constructing and analyzing prefecture-level panel data for the Ming and Qing dynasty, I show that population growth increases the incidence of civil conflict. Using the exogenous shock of agricultural technology as an instrument, I show that a population increase of one million people is associated with 0.183 more civil conflicts. Robustness checks indicate that the results are not influenced by specific periods, conflict intensity, measurements of civil conflict, or length of period. Rapid population growth appears to have increased demand for food and decreased land holdings per capita, with the relative scarcity of land increasing grain prices. The study thus provides...[ Read more ]

This paper examines whether Malthusian positive checks on population size took place in historical China. By constructing and analyzing prefecture-level panel data for the Ming and Qing dynasty, I show that population growth increases the incidence of civil conflict. Using the exogenous shock of agricultural technology as an instrument, I show that a population increase of one million people is associated with 0.183 more civil conflicts. Robustness checks indicate that the results are not influenced by specific periods, conflict intensity, measurements of civil conflict, or length of period. Rapid population growth appears to have increased demand for food and decreased land holdings per capita, with the relative scarcity of land increasing grain prices. The study thus provides empirical support for civil conflict as a positive check on population size during the Ming and Qing dynasty. There is little evidence, however, that population growth increased the famine or epidemics from the 16^th century to the early 20^th century in China.

Keywords: Positive check, Population growth, Civil conflict, New world crop adoption, land resources, China.