THESIS
2020
xiii, 144 pages : illustrations ; 30 cm
Abstract
To examine the impact of travel time variability on travelers’ daily commute trips, stochastic
bottleneck models with semi-endogenous random delay and endogenous random delay
are proposed, respectively. In the model of semi-endogenous random delay, travel time
variability is related to both the demand and supply sides. It describes the uncertainty
of travel time as a random delay in relation to congestion. In this framework, a uniform
toll is applied to all the travelers in the bottleneck model to reduce the total demand
and the congestion-related random delay. This consideration of elastic demand and endogenous
random delay under tolling produces distinctive departure profiles and system
performances. We present new definitions and propositions according to the perspectives
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To examine the impact of travel time variability on travelers’ daily commute trips, stochastic
bottleneck models with semi-endogenous random delay and endogenous random delay
are proposed, respectively. In the model of semi-endogenous random delay, travel time
variability is related to both the demand and supply sides. It describes the uncertainty
of travel time as a random delay in relation to congestion. In this framework, a uniform
toll is applied to all the travelers in the bottleneck model to reduce the total demand
and the congestion-related random delay. This consideration of elastic demand and endogenous
random delay under tolling produces distinctive departure profiles and system
performances. We present new definitions and propositions according to the perspectives
of both users and the system.
To further illustrate the impact of travel time variability, we introduce travel variation
cost as an additional cost. The variation cost captures not only travel time variation but
also variation in the scheduling cost. The equilibrium condition is affected by both the
expected travel cost and the variation cost. When user equilibrium is achieved, all the
travelers share the same generalized cost. Under this framework, we study the departure
profiles under moderate and high capacity variability, respectively. When the capacity is
highly variable, even the last traveler should depart early to avoid the high late penalty.
Then different scenarios of capacity waste under the single-step tolling scheme are illustrated
extensively.
To reduce the impact of travel time variability, travelers may take advantage of many
information sources, such as radio or TV broadcasting, websites or real-time traffic information
apps. Previous research has considered various kinds of information provided to
travelers but has mostly assumed that travelers effortlessly incorporate all the provided
information into their decisions. However, it seems unrealistic to assume that travelers
make use of all the available information as that would require considerable effort that
could easily outweigh the potential gains from improving the timing of trips. Recognizing
this, the study connects the rational inattention model in the microeconomics to the travelers’
departure and route choices under travel time variability (TTV), where the traveler
also chooses an information strategy. That is in contrast to the neoclassical model which
takes the traveler’s information as given. Here, the traveler’s information strategy is endogenously
chosen, taking the cost of information into account.
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